ETC/CEA Research Report: 3D TV Consumer Trends

ETC’s executive director David Wertheimer and CEA’s chief economist Shawn DuBravac gave an encouraging snapshot of consumer feelings about 3D TV at our opening presentation on Thursday.

“The big question is, do consumers think 3D is real?” Wertheimer said. “And the answer is, yes they do, and they’re willing to pay for it.”

Dubravac quoted results from a recent nationwide consumer survey, including the estimate that 25% of consumers plan to buy a 3D TV in the next three years. That’s 28 million TVs in three years, with CEA forecasting 4.3 million sets sold in 2010.

Other highlights include:

– 3D is not just a one-time experience: People are coming back to 3D entertainment multiple times.

– “Seeing is believing:” Consumers who have seen 3D have a better impression of the technology, and objections like “the glasses are annoying” or “3D is gimmicky” decreased significantly after a 3D experience. 85% of viewers said they were satisfied with their 3D experience.

– “Unlike with HD, we don’t need to convince consumers that 3D is different; they know it’s different. What we have to do is convince them it’s different than 3D in the 1950s and 1970s, and that it’s a viable home entertainment technology,” Dubravac said.

– Accelerating 3D Adoption: “Having 3D content readily available is the key driver of adoption. This is the exclamation point to the announcements of content deals we’ve heard in the last 48 hours,” Dubravac said. Other factors for consumers include availability of content through different delivery methods, ability to rent content, and video game availability.

– Similarities & Difference to HD adoption experience: The uptake cycle for 3D adoption looks like HD, led by early adopters attracted by sports and action-adventure. At a similar point in the adoption of HD, 33% of consumers said they would “never” own an HD TV, while only 19% of consumers say they would “never” own a 3D TV. Unlike HD, animation is another driving factor in 3D TV sales.

– 3D sets will skew to larger models like 46”, especially in the early years. They’ll also be feature-rich with Internet, Wi-Fi, multiple HDMI ports, and other features.

– Price Sensitivity Meter for TV: While consumers said they were willing to pay $400-$600 for a regular TV, they volunteered they’d be willing to pay $500-$700 for 3D. It’s great that they perceive a higher quality and are willing to pay for it, but unfortunately those estimates are still only about 1/3 the cost of most 3D units on display here at CES.